Thomas Tuchel has built, officially, what is the best defense in the Premier League, conceding just four goals (one from open play). Only two teams have conceded fewer after the opening 11 games of a top-flight season. However, I'd be stunned if Chelsea maintains these types of numbers over the next few weeks. When looking at the expected goals against data, Chelsea is offering up good chances and shooting opportunities to the opposition.
In fact, Chelsea has
the biggest difference between goals conceded (4) and expected goals against (11.79) in the Premier League after the opening eight games - at 7.79. It's a huge overperformance.
This is an angle I've spoken about in the last few weeks but Chelsea's previous opposition, in Norwich and Burnley, haven't been strong enough in forward areas to tempt me into getting involved on the prices surrounding goals going in Chelsea's net.
Now is the time, though, to back for goals and for an exciting match as Leicester carries a genuine top-six ranked threat in the final third but a defense that is one of the leakiest in the Premier League this season.
Since Brendan Rodgers took charge in 2019, only Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, and Chelsea have scored more goals than Leicester. And their average of 3.11 total goals in their matches over the past two seasons is the second-highest average - behind Manchester United - of any team in the Premier League.
The market is expecting a cagey, tactical affair but with chances of goals at either end, this is a match that could catch fire. That also then opens up the avenue for backing the match total shots market where the line is set at 25 or more shots at Evens. If you take out the possibility of this game catching fire and going shots crazy, the hard averages from both teams' shots data this season make that line appealing anyway. Chelsea's games are averaging just over 24 shots per 90 minutes and Leicester's just over 26. I think the 25 or more will breeze home. And the higher lines of 31+ at 5/1 with Sky Bet and even 34+ at 16/1 should not be ruled out.
The play, therefore, is to combine goals and shots in a special offered by Sky Bet involving over 2.5 goals, both teams to score, and the match to produce 27 or more shots.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
1 Comments
Great and commendable
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